- Following a muted 2023, global trade experienced a rebound in the first months of 2024 (though against a weak base in both 2022 & 2023), driven by more exports from New Zealand primarily to China and MENA. The growth occurred in January and February before turning negative in March.
- The long-awaited Chinese demand recovery is still pending, as continuously growing milk production and weak domestic consumption keep hampering the need for imports. The only bright spot is the increase of WMP volumes for the first time since Q1 2022. Other East Asian buying is improving but their economies remain fragile (currency devaluation), Vietnam being a good example (imports down by 19% in Q1).
- EU exports were unspectacular in Q1 2024, dragged down by poor volumes in March (-11% in ME). China was at the heart of this disappointing performance, while exports to other destinations were quite mixed.
- Boosted by very competitive pricing, US cheese shipments soared in the first quarter of 2024. Exports of all the other products continued to trend lower, reflecting constrained production. Conversely, shipments of Australia, India and Türkiye boomed after a drastic drop in 2023