•Against a 5% drop in 2022, global dairy trade rose by 1,9% in the first half of 2023. The small decline in Q1 was more than offset by a rather strong second quarter, with May exports standing out (+8%).
•Despite inflation affecting consumers’ purchasing power, global dairy demand was solid in the first semester, supported by strong imports by Algeria, Mexico and Brazil. Chinese imports remain a concern but have shown improvements since February. The picture is more depressing when looking at South-East Asia, with sales moving down further in Q2 (-15% in H1).
•Following a subdued performance in 2022, New Zealand and EU exports rebounded in H1 and led the export growth. US experienced the opposite trend, retreating after years of aggressive expansion, slowing milk production and strong domestic disappearance being the key factors.
•Still decent milk production, stagnating or reduced domestic consumption and declining commodity prices boosted EU exports of all the main dairy products in H1 (against weak H1 2022).
•Due to shrinking milk pools in Australia (structural challenges) and Argentina (weather conditions), the UK has become #4 supplier globally, with shipments increasing further in 2023. The EU remains the main outlet (69%) but a larger share of the growth has been in non-EU destinations.